We just read the recent TechCrunch piece reporting Adobe’s bold prediction: AI-assisted online shopping could surge 520% during the U.S. 2025 holiday season.
TechCrunch.
Key Ideas
- Massive AI traffic growth — Adobe expects traffic driven by AI referrals (via chatbots, generative assistants, etc.) to rise 520% year over year, peaking in the 10 days before Thanksgiving.
- Holiday sales still rising, but modestly — Total online U.S. holiday sales are projected at $253.4B, up ~5.3% from 2024.
- Discounts, BNPL, and mobile lead the way — Expect deep discounting (especially in electronics), 11% growth in buy-now-pay-later usage, and mobile devices accounting for ~56% of online shopping.
- AI a shopping co-pilot, not just a tool — More than one third of surveyed consumers already use AI for research, recommendations, deal finding, or gift inspiration.
Shifting power dynamics for retailers, with AI-driven referrals getting stronger, brands will compete not just on SEO or ads, but on visibility and relevance within AI interfaces themselves.
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This forecast suggests we’re entering an era where AI doesn’t just add convenience, it becomes a gateway to commerce. How ready are your products, content, and user experience to be surfaced by an AI assistant rather than a search engine?
